Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.009686 0.010943 0.012303 0.013882 0.015668 0.017625 0.019933
2025-11-16 0.007718 0.009457 0.011496 0.014065 0.017217 0.020964 0.025762
2025-11-23 0.006490 0.008407 0.010784 0.013948 0.018057 0.023224 0.030229
2025-11-30 0.005803 0.007868 0.010546 0.014278 0.019356 0.026042 0.035542
2025-12-07 0.005008 0.007061 0.009830 0.013844 0.019529 0.027319 0.038846
2025-12-14 0.004442 0.006486 0.009341 0.013628 0.019922 0.028858 0.042577
2025-12-21 0.003924 0.005917 0.008788 0.013239 0.019992 0.029899 0.045622
2025-12-28 0.003714 0.005768 0.008819 0.013691 0.021315 0.032846 0.051729
2026-01-04 0.003483 0.005562 0.008735 0.013948 0.022342 0.035407 0.057438
2026-01-11 0.003295 0.005402 0.008703 0.014271 0.023482 0.038212 0.063751
2026-01-18 0.003039 0.005106 0.008425 0.014165 0.023908 0.039888 0.068331
2026-01-25 0.002823 0.004857 0.008199 0.014117 0.024411 0.041711 0.073285
2026-02-01 0.002583 0.004549 0.007855 0.013851 0.024536 0.042937 0.077369
2026-02-08 0.002440 0.004397 0.007765 0.014016 0.025427 0.045553 0.084154
2026-02-15 0.002267 0.004174 0.007531 0.013901 0.025796 0.047263 0.089418
2026-02-22 0.002177 0.004095 0.007543 0.014230 0.027000 0.050565 0.097922
2026-03-01 0.001987 0.003814 0.007165 0.013797 0.026734 0.051117 0.101197
2026-03-08 0.001844 0.003610 0.006913 0.013582 0.026859 0.052402 0.105994
2026-03-15 0.001693 0.003378 0.006587 0.013194 0.026611 0.052939 0.109322
2026-03-22 0.001655 0.003364 0.006682 0.013645 0.028068 0.056942 0.120063
2026-03-29 0.001596 0.003304 0.006681 0.013901 0.029147 0.060261 0.129653
2026-04-05 0.001548 0.003261 0.006711 0.014222 0.030383 0.063992 0.140429
2026-04-12 0.001459 0.003128 0.006546 0.014117 0.030705 0.065832 0.147237